5-at-10: Fab 4 picks will not discuss Fight Club, Wash out, Michigan result, GOP debate

Louisville running back Isaac Guerendo (23) saves into the end zone during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Louisville, Ky., Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023. Louisville won 34-3. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)
Louisville running back Isaac Guerendo (23) saves into the end zone during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Louisville, Ky., Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023. Louisville won 34-3. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)

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Fab 4 picks

Well, as you afternoon email subscribers know — and if you are not on Jay's Plays, my Monday-Friday afternoon sports-betting email you can sign up above — we are not going to discuss our recent results.

Because Rule 1 of Fight Club is we don't talk about Fight Club.

And Rule 2 of Fight Club is WE DON'T TALK ABOUT FIGHT CLUB.

Not unlike how William Munny — the outlaw outta Missouri who killed women and children — was lucky with fillin' folks, I have always been superstitious when it comes to sports.

Wore the same socks during winning streaks.

Ate at the same places for breakfast and pregame is I was playing well or if I was getting the ball on the mound.

My pregame routines were always the same.

And there were more, but let's get to business.

Let's make like the Princeton offense back in the day and do some picks.

Louisville minus-20 over Virginia. What, a midweek conference game and you want me to lay almost three TDs? Greeson, you're cracked. Well, here's the thing, Louisville is the surprise team in the country. They are 8-1 and they are different creature at home, where they average more than 36 points per outing and have an average margin of victory at the House Papa John built of right at 24 per game against FBS foes. And know this: Huge motivation edge for the Cardinals. At home. One win from all-but-clinching a spot in the ACC title game, and Virginia is about to pack the gear.

UAB-Navy under 55 (PointsBet). Want to guess how many Navy games (out of eight) have had more than 54 points scored? That would be one — UCF beating Navy 44-30. That's enough for me, especially with the new clock rules.

FSU minus-13.5 over Miami (FanDuel). Love this spot for the Seminoles for a multitude of reasons. Both of theses teams are in the top 35 nationally in pass rate, and FSU has a huge edge at QB with Jordan Travis. FSU is at home, and maybe most importantly, hanging on to the 4 spot, FSU needs style points, especially after last week's rather lackluster win over Pitt.

South Carolina minus-13.5 (BetMGM) over Vanderbilt. This feels like a must-win for Shane Beamer, right? A 3-6 mark with a late escape against Jacksonville State. Longshot bowl chances hinge on winning here; longshot Beamer-in-Columbia chances hinge of Beamer winning big here. Plus, man, we have been remiss on not riding the anti-Vandy ATM that has been this season. Yes, we played the Vandy under 4 wins, but check these numbers and wonder to yourself about the motivation to go on the road against Spencer Rattler and USC: Vandy has lost eight in a row outright and is a staggering 1-9 against the spread.

LSU-Florida over 63 (DraftKings). Go get this now. It will be closer to 66 before kickoff. And we could breakdown how each of these teams are in the top nationally in points per opportunity since Week 5 of the season, but we're just going to leave it at this. We're riding LSU overs till they buck us. Deal? The Tigers are Ferris Bueller and in nine games have gone over NINE times. Makes you look like a (bleep) is what he does Ed.

USC-Oregon over 73 (PointsBet). Everything I said above, only USC's high-powered offense is going to have to play from behind the whole time.

Last week: 4-2 against the spread (66.7%)

This season: 36-25-1 against the spread (59%)

(Side note: My season total math last week was wrong, so that's how my season % dipped despite going 4-2.)

Lost in the Wash

Wow, our betting stories got long, huh? So it goes.

Well, let's make up some time on these next two.

Terrible news happened for Braves Nation on Wednesday.

Third-base coach and infield guru Ron Washington took the Angels job.

His checkered past — Wash had a bit of a problem with the booger sugar when he was managing the Rangers — was the only reason the Braves could have kept an invaluable baseball presence like Wash for this long.

First, he has been credited by every infielder over the six-plus — including Dansby Swanson and Freddie Freeman — who have won Gold Gloves give immediate credit to Wash.

Next, he's a dynamite third-base coach, and rarely makes a mistake sending runners.

Finally, I know I am overly harsh on Brian Snitker, who could very well win NL manager of the year next year. But I think the strength of that coaching staff is the staff itself and Snitker's ability to let his talented staff perform.

Filling Washington's cleats now because job No. 2 behind finding a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher for Alex Anthopoulos.

Michigan opinions

Well, the wolves are starting to circle, and the sides are starting to galvanize in this whole Michigan deal. We discussed it some yesterday, and in truth, it's starting to feel like the instructions on the back of the shampoo bottle.

Rinse. Lather. Repeat.

But now comes the bully pulpit of the national yardbarkers coming out with, "Cheaters, and they should be ..." (Side note: I will not be linking any of these columns because in truth that's what these folks who are trying to attract attention with the Skip Bayless/Stephen A. Smith/Chris Russo method of yelling the most outlandish things at the highest volumes want.

— I have seen "banned from the playoff." That's too much, unless the powers that be have way more evidence than they have released. And that evidence funds more than Conor Stallions and the cheating.

— I have seen "not voting for JJ McCarthy for Heisman." That's kind of nonsensical, especially for an award that has voted for OJ and then took Reggie Bush's Heisman and refused to give it back, even when all the things Reggie did are now everyday occurrences.

— I have seen "Harbaugh suspended." This makes the most sense, I suppose, but not unlike public school discipline, how many suspensions does Harbaugh get/need before getting expelled?

I have never been for punishing a college team for the sins of the adults, especially when those sins happened in previous years.

Heck it was 13 years ago about this time we were dealing with the Cam Newton scandal and he got suspended for 1 day. And then led AU to the natty.

My best guess. This drags to Monday, Harbaugh gets suspended for Michigan's trip to Maryland but will be reinstated before facing THE Ohio State.

All of this happens with the wink-wink, nod-nod that more is to come in the off season.


This and that

— Speaking of picks and the rules, here's Paschall's picks column.

— Another GOP debate happened last night and easily the most important moment was from Vivek Ramaswamy, who blasted national Republican Party leadership and called the GOP a "party of losers." Of course he could not just end on the accountability point, he had to blast the MSNBC moderators and said the GOP debate should be held by conservative journalists. Vivek, that's part of the problem of the main stream news cycle, and certainly not the solution.

— Of course Nikki Haley, forgetting everything that used to be about public debate felt the pressure and need to say to Vivek, "You're just scum." My head hurts, because these clowns are going to let Biden win again, and I'm going to have to work until I'm 85 to afford his terrible economic decisions.

— Watched the CMA Awards last night. Somewhere Walyon Jenning just punched Johnny Cash in the mouth and said, "What the (bleep) was that." And in a strange twist, since I was flipping channels between the debate, the terrible football game that was Miami-Akron (Fight Club) and the CMAs, I had the option to fast forward through all three. And I fast-forwarded through Luke Bryan's performance to watch commercials elsewhere. So there's that.

— When you think prime time, high-quality NFL QB matchups, does it get any bigger tonight than Chicago (2-7) with Tyler Bagent behind center against 1-8 Carolina with rookie Bryce Young. First team to 13 wins?

Today's questions

Anything Goes Thursday (AGT, kids) starts this way: Do you have a current favorite country act?

Also, what do you think the Michigan punishment will be?

One more: Can any of the three on the stage last night beat The Donald?


As for today, Nov. 9, let's review.

Not much if we're being honest.

Bob Gibson would have been 88 today.

If you had to win one game for the life of a loved one, Bob Gibson's on that short list right?

Also, Art Carney died on this day 20 years ago.

Rushmore of "art" and be creative.

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